Market Musings - 5-3-2022 - FED Watch

Market musing from George Crawford @GeorgeCrawIN

Tuesday 9:45am - DNOWS Meetup

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1. High Volatility: VIX > 32. SPX bounced off the 15% Bear Market Correction on Monday. All eyes are on the FOMC Meeting, where a 50 Basis Point Rate hike is expected. Expect markets to maintain this high volatility as Big tech earnings, Inflation, Rate Hikes and Ukraine dominate the news cycle. Omicron, Vaccines and Treatments are eliminating Covid-19 domestically and globally. The new expected SPX range for this week: 4300 top and 3964 bottom.

Sell Put Credit and Call Credit Spreads. Buy Put Calendars, Ghetto Spreads and Butterflies on overbought Stocks and ETFs.

2. US Dollar and 10 Year Interest Rate:

   The US Dollar rise is pausing after breaching the Pandemic High of 103. Perhaps there will be pausing in rising rates too. While the US Dollar is losing buying Power, it still is the strongest FIAT currency. For now, the US Dollar is a flight to safety as the US and Europe slip into recession. As a result, the 10Y Note Interest hti a high of 3% on Monday. 30 year fixed rate mortgages are at a 4 year high between 5-6%. This is not good for Tech Stocks and Real Estate. Commodities prices on Oil and Wheat remain elevated. Long Term the US Dollar decline is still intact with Fiscal and Monetary stimulus flooding the world with US Dollars.

3. Crypto Currency: Bitcoin remains range bound between $45,000 and $35,000 in 2022. Mass institutional adoption accelerates. A third country Uzbekistan has legalized Bitcoin mining, trading and payment following in El Salvador’s and CAR’s footsteps. Fidelity will allow their clients to buy Bitcoin soon. Watch for other Corporations, Countries, Investors and Retail investors to jump in Globally. Please continue to Dollar Cost Average into Bitcoin and Ethereum. Start unloading when CBBI.INFO hits 90% to 100%.

   The hottest application areas for Cryptos / Blockchain are Metaverse, Decentralized Finance (DEFI) and Non-Fungible Tokens (NFT). Besides Bitcoin and Ethereum, these momentum coins could represent scalping opportunities: Cardano (ADA), Vechain (VET), Hedera (HBAR), Solana (SOL), Chainlink (Link), Terra (LUNA), AXIE Polygon(Matic) and MANA.

   https://support.tastyworks.com/support/solutions/articles/43000612831-available-cryptocurrencies

4. Tasty Works Algo Trading System: James at Quiet Foundation

Alpha Boost ideas, sign up HERE:

https://issuu.com/luckbox/docs/2111-luckbox-site/56 Alph Boost Article

If you are new to options or this blog sounds like gibberish, please tryout Tasty Trade’s New 2020 Education. Includes 40 Videos, Testing and you get a certificate of completion at the end of the course.

https://tastytrade.thinkific.com/courses/beginner-options-course

5. TRADE Log: VIX > 30

1. Jade Lizards

2. Put Broken Wing Butterflies -

3. Put and CallCredit Spreads -

4. Put Calendars -

5. Crypto -

6. Video and Articles

https://theotrade.com/how-much-more-carnage-will-markets-sustain//

How to Create Risk-Free Option Positions - Chris Butler, Former Tastytrade Researcher and Trader https://youtu.be/EFEUbh2CLVI

https://pfnews.substack.com/p/how-to-create-risk-free-option-positions

Chris Rowe: 3 Things You Can Do Right Now to Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Bear Market

https://www.facebook.com/truemarketinsidersofficial/videos/500503595043092/

George Crawford's previous musings:

• Big Tech Earnings, Prepping for a Bearish Market

• Earnings Season, Higher Interest Rates

• Inflation, Earnings, and Bond Sales oh my

• 2022 Inverted Yield Curve and Elon Musk Buys Twitter