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June 30, 2023 – This market continues to “Climb The Wall of Worry” since the confirmed breakout in early May. We’ve made it through the Bank Failure scare that happened a mire 2 months ago and many folks remain concerned about banks, inflation, the economy geo-political risks (i.e. Russia & China) and our domestic politics. There’s plenty to worry about but . . . employment is high, inflation is easing and (so far) the rest appears to be contained. This market IS pricing in a “soft landing” for the economy.
History does confirm that stocks actually can go higher with interest rates increasing and our recent ultra-low rates were just not “normal” nor sustainable. Overall the market breath continues to improve; that is more stocks are participating in the general climb higher. New Highs are overtaking New Lows; the Advance / Decline ratios are improving too. Clearly a wild card event could throw a loop and this market is susceptible to news in a significant way; all is not “sweetness & light”, that’s true. But if we wait for a sure thing, we’ll be closer to the next market top that a bottom. With reward comes risk, such is life. I am expecting a minor pullback early next week. It should be on light volume.
As a reminder: The US stock markets are open on Monday, July 3, but will close early at 1pm EDT. Those in the US, have a Happy & Safe 4th of July. Take Care and have a good week. …. Tom ….
Chart by www.StockCharts.com