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April 11, 2025 – Of course the question is “Is this the Low?” And if anyone says positively Yes or No . . . . run, don’t walk away from them. Because nobody knows with any certainty, that’s for sure. And the main reason is that this volatility was man-made; not economic and not fundamental. Whether you agree or not, the USA has an administration that has no experience in governing, and precious little in what they are attempting to do. (a.k.a. expertise). Plus, a President who likes to (must) be in the news every day. Thus, we can expect more volatility, more back & forth, especially over the next 1-2 years. * (Falling bond prices coupled with the falling dollar is a major problem if it continues!)
Businesses do not like uncertainty, whether you agree with government policies or not, they can not plan for things that change weekly, let alone daily, and neither can the consumer. The USA economy is based 70% off of consumer consumption and right now the consumer is getting nervous.
The chart shows the daily SPY ETF. Until it closes above 551, on higher volume, I remain a little skeptical. The next level of support would be around 466. Either could be broken next week. But back to volatility: No matter which way the market goes, it will likely be a back-and-forth path with a clear and steady direction unlikely. IMHO. All of us will need to be careful and selective. My advice (when to enter into a purchase) is to scale in and then determine what level you need to get out. The next few years will not be as easy and straight forward as the last 2 years; I’m pretty sure of that. There will be opportunities in very select industries and stocks. **I wish all Good Trading & Investing. ** ………… Tom ………..