Introduction to Pagsiguro (PagBank)

PUBLISHED Jan 11, 2025, 5:36:32 PM        SHARE

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imgSharpe Investing On YouTube

Introduction to Pagsiguro (PagBank)

https://youtu.be/if85Oo7d9-Q?si=YhloW0TdAcjR7eYh

What's up, everyone? Mike Sharp here, and welcome to Sharp Investing. Today, I'm going to talk about Pagsiguro, also known as PagBank. This company operates a business model very similar to StoneCo, and I've recently bought about a 4% position in it. However, I must emphasize that this is a trade, not a long-term investment for me.

In some of my other videos, I've talked about how I split my holdings between long-term investments and trades, with about 20-25% of my portfolio dedicated to trades, which can range from holding positions for a day to up to a year.

Reasons for Buying Pagsiguro

Technical Analysis

As of December 11th, Pagsiguro's stock price has hit a support level of around $7. This level was previously tested back in October last year. According to technical analysis, support levels tend to attract buying interest, as investors who missed out last time will buy if the price dips again. Additionally, support levels often act as psychological barriers where the price bounces back, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If the stock breaks below $7 and stays there, I'll likely sell it. On the upside, I'm targeting a move to about $12.50-$13, with a potential upside of $5 and a downside of $1, creating a 5:1 risk-to-reward ratio.

BRL Currency and Rates

The exchange rate is another crucial factor. About a year ago, the Brazilian Real (BRL) was trading below 5 to the US dollar but has recently hit above 6. This significant depreciation has impacted companies like StoneCo and Pagsiguro negatively, as they convert earnings to US dollars, creating a 20% headwind.

However, the Central Bank in Brazil has changed its course and is now raising interest rates. While this increases the cost of capital, it also strengthens the currency. If the BRL strengthens against the dollar, it could positively impact these companies' share prices.

Valuation

From a valuation perspective, Pagsiguro is currently quite cheap. Their earnings for the quarter were 178 BRL, approximately 30 US cents, translating to around 85 US cents for the year. With a share price around $7.10, their price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is just over 6 times.

Despite analysts projecting a slower growth rate of around 9% for next year, the current low P/E ratio makes Pagsiguro an attractive buy for now. It's essential to monitor currency valuation and growth rates closely, as they can significantly influence future performance.

Pagsiguro Overview and Comparison with StoneCo

Pagsiguro and StoneCo are both payment providers for merchants in Brazil, but they have some key differences. Pagsiguro, now called PagBank, has transitioned further into banking services compared to StoneCo, which had paused its credit products for two years.

Business Model

  • Pagsiguro focuses on micro-merchants, such as market vendors using mobile payment systems.
  • StoneCo targets larger merchants and has had to recover from significant setbacks with its credit products.

Pagsiguro has managed to maintain its credit products throughout the challenging periods, positioning itself better for a robust recovery.

Final Thoughts

Overall, Pagsiguro presents a compelling trade opportunity driven by technical support, currency exchange rates, and an attractive valuation. As always, it's crucial to stay informed and flexible, adapting to changing market conditions.

What are your thoughts on Pagsiguro? Would you consider adding it to your portfolio?

https://youtu.be/if85Oo7d9-Q?si=YhloW0TdAcjR7eYh



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